The Biology of Risk
Publishing is a business of skeletal margins, and in any industry facing a crunch, the first place to cut costs is labor. Today’s editors are working more books than ever while drowning in a record-breaking volume of submissions.
It is a difficult, often thankless position. Their performance is measured by success in a field that is almost entirely subjective. An editor might champion a debut that fails to find its footing, and suddenly, their professional judgment is under the microscope of upper management. Editing, at its heart, is a creative endeavor—it’s the ability to pause and see the latent potential in a clunky first act. But that kind of vision requires a luxury the modern industry rarely affords: time.
The Editor’s Dilemma: Stress and the Short-Faced Bear
Traditional publishing is under more stress than ever, and both personal experience and cognitive science tell us that stress eats creativity for breakfast.
Biologically, we haven’t evolved much. While an editor might seem “slow” or “absent” during a long summer, their internal chemistry is likely identical to a prehistoric ancestor trying to mix pigments while a short-faced bear crackles through the undergrowth. When you are in survival mode, you don’t innovate. You retreat.
Stress doesn’t just kill creativity; it makes us conservative. If you’re an editor at a Big Five house, the system provides an array of incentives to avoid risk. This is why “Comp Titles” have become the dominant language of the industry. Comps are an implicit argument: “This book is like To Kill a Mockingbird, but with a Romantasy twist.” It’s a way of saying, “We already know this works; therefore, the risk is low.”
Exercise: For a laugh, look up the comp titles used to sell the books currently on your nightstand. You’ll see the fingerprints of the accountants everywhere.
The Four Pillars of Great Fiction
If we accept that stress breeds conservatism, we have to look at what we’re actually losing on the page. In my view, the “Art” of the book relies on four specific attributes that don’t play well with a spreadsheet:
- Novelty: The work must be unique. As publishing operates at economies of scale, novelty is usually the first sacrifice at the altar of marketability.
- Challenge: Whether it’s the prose, the structure, or the themes, great books should push the reader. I worry about the fate of challenge in 2026, twenty-five years into the cellphone era.
- Aesthetics: This is pure taste—the prose, the atmosphere, the voice. If you read a few years of National Book Award winners, you’ll start to notice how the sentences and rhythms are becoming increasingly interchangeable.
- Empathy: Does the reader care? I often think of Ann Patchett’s Bel Canto—the way we learn about Katsumi Hosokawa’s obsession with opera until his obsession becomes our own.
From Hollywood to Spokane: The Data of Derivation
This isn’t a phenomenon unique to the New York slush pile. We see the same pattern of risk-aversion in every medium. Walk into the AMC here in Spokane this afternoon, and the marquee tells the same story.When the accountants begin to sway the creatives, the new is replaced by the known. Out of 18 movies currently playing at the AMC Spokane, only five are based on an original screenplay—roughly 28%.
| Movie Title | Source Material | Category |
| Avatar: Fire and Ash | Avatar franchise | Sequel / Existing IP |
| Crime 101 | Novella by Don Winslow | Book Adaptation |
| Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle | Manga series | Manga Adaptation |
| GOAT | Sony Animation Concept | Original Screenplay |
| Hamnet | Novel by Maggie O’Farrell | Book Adaptation |
| Hoppers | Pixar Concept | Original Screenplay |
| Kiki’s Delivery Service 4K | 1989 Studio Ghibli film | Re-release / IP |
| One Battle After Another | Vineland by Thomas Pynchon | Book Adaptation |
| Project Hail Mary | Novel by Andy Weir | Book Adaptation |
| Ready or Not 2 | 2019 film Ready or Not | Sequel / IP |
| Reminders of Him | Novel by Colleen Hoover | Book Adaptation |
| Scream 7 | Horror franchise | Sequel / IP |
| Sinners | Concept by Ryan Coogler | Original Screenplay |
| Slanted | Indie Thriller | Original Screenplay |
| The Bride! | Frankenstein | Remake / IP |
| The Pout-Pout Fish | Children’s book | Book Adaptation |
| Tow | True Story of Amanda Ogle | Original / True Story |
| Undertone | Horror Concept | Original Screenplay |
What Does this Mean?
Traditional publishing is being disrupted, and like Hollywood, it is looking to business analysts to save it. But for those of us writing in the margins—the Inland Northwest Noir, the Upmarket Gothic, the stories that don’t fit into a “Romantasy” pitch deck—this disruption is also an invitation.
If the big five can’t take risks, it’s up to the indies and the outsiders.
Join the Search
I’m currently preparing for the September 2026 launch of GHOSTS IN THE PINES, a novel that prioritizes atmosphere and grit over spreadsheet metrics. If you’re tired of the same old mystery novel, join my inner circle for monthly dispatches on craft, noir, and the Inland Northwest.
